Vatanka Reports
News and Analysis on the Greater Middle East 
 

By appointing Ali Khamenei's son as the country's new Supreme Leader, the regime is prioritising survival over doctrinal coherence

When states are attacked, authority gravitates towards institutions capable of mobilising resources, enforcing discipline, and coordinating a military response

With Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. seeks to reshape the balance of power without falling into a quagmire, while Iran believes it must strike back hard enough to avoid permanent strategic loss.

Whether the system emerges intact, transforms itself, or begins to fracture will depend as much on decisions made in the US as on those made in Iran.

Iran’s Look East doctrine resulted in a strategic partnership but not a strategic commitment.

Only a unified movement can threaten the regime

Thus, by mid-January, Gulf capitals were no longer questioning whether Oman should mediate — but whether Oman could prevent a conflict neither side may intend but both are dangerously capable of triggering.

Muscat’s facilitation of talks has helped the region more than once. Now Oman must act quickly to convince Iran to make meaningful concessions and prevent conflict.

People are not protesting because they suddenly discovered activism. They are protesting because the habits of coping and waiting for conditions to improve have finally stopped working.

The US can help — without another Middle East quagmire

The timing of the protests matters. After the 12-day war, many Iranians hoped the shock of confrontation would prompt a strategic reassessment at home. The logic was straightforward: External pressure had peaked, and national unity had been demonstrated, so perhaps now was the moment for internal recalibration.

An Iraqi parliament inclined to police those conduits under US pressure would tighten the vise; whereas, a parliament content to muddle through would keep Iran’s arteries open.