Vatanka Reports
News and Analysis on the Greater Middle East 
 

Leaders in Tehran can either seize the diplomatic opportunity—or face a potential threat to their own power.

As the war rages on between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the role of Iran will remain a central factor. Tehran is not only Israel’s top regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas.

Two days after the Hamas attack on Israel last weekend, a top Iranian official said that “Arab states willing to normalize relations with Israel [should] give up the process and learn a lesson from the latest developments in Palestine.”

History might very well show that the people’s protests that broke out in September 2022 in Iran were the final opportunity for the Islamist regime to change political course. But as the past year has made clear, the regime in Tehran utterly failed to seize the moment.

Heightened great power competition is allowing nations to make deals in their own best interests.

Iran is possibly the only country that the United Arab Emirates can call an “enemy.” Yet there is another more significant and multilayered side to the UAE-Iran relationship, one that concepts such as political pragmatism or hedging alone cannot explain.

Late last month, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opted to replace the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani.

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoys keeps visiting Iran. Igor Levitin, Putin’s advisor, has visited Tehran twice in 2023, totaling five visits in the last six months.

More than a year on from the beginning of the Ukraine war in February 2022, there is no more business as usual for Russia-Iran relations. While bilateral ties are still characterized by an intense focus on security and defense, the two sides are opening multiple new areas of cooperation as well.

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq presented policymakers in Tehran with the need to make a crucial decision.

Stirring sectarian tensions in the country’s poorest province is a dangerous game.

The region is fast becoming a new geopolitical tinderbox, but both countries have good reasons to rebuild ties